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More indefensible parallels

Iraq may be more properly compared to the Philippines, than to Viet Nam.

As in the Philippines, the Iraqi insurgency is made up of a minority of persons, lacking a traditional military structure and an analog to the North Vietnamese Army.

The British demonstrated the falseness of the allegation that an occupying force cannot defeat an
insurgency. The British were able to face the communist insurgency in Malaysia long enough to establish a stable government and depart without leaving a power vacuum.

The U.S. fought, periodically, a counter-insurgency in the
Philippines during the entire time the U.S. occupied the country or sponsored the government. This counter-insurgency continues to the present, as the U.S., but more importantly, the Philippines, faces the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (now allied with the AQ-linked Abu Sayyaf), seeking an independent Muslim country on the Island of Mindanao.

This is the object we ought to seek. We hold the line until we can slowly cede the line to a legitimate, indigenous government. The government in the Philippines has had some hiccups on its march to democracy (Marcos ruled by decree for roughly 15 years, the present administration is accused of election rigging, et cetera). The U.S. now only has advisors and teachers in the Philippines and Philippine soldiers and sailors do the bulk of the heavy lifting.

This is a successful counter-insurgency: Setting the stage for a legitimate government to take over the fight. The goals of Abu Sayyaf and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front are not acceptable to the government of the Philippines, nor were they acceptable to the U.S. when the U.S. was controlling authority. An elected government has taken over the fight.

Democracy does not take root over night. The colonies worked at it for several hundred years and took two attempts to form a central government. And the U.S. was starting on second base by having the British parliamentary and common law traditions in place. The U.S. took another 80 years to grant blacks the right to vote and 60 years past that to give women the right to vote. Jim Crow wasn't put to bed for 40 years or so past that.

And Sen. Reid, et al, expects a fully functioning democracy in four years. A fully functioning democracy founded on the broken foundation of a toppled autocracy.

I have no time for such nonsense.

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4 elements

Al Naqba (the establishment of Israel)
The Iranian Revolution
The destruction of the caliphate
The discovery of oil

What do these four things have in common?

Each of these four occurrances has set the stage for the our current problems in the Near East. 

The discovery of oil turned a cultural, social, and cultural backwater into a vitally important element of the world economy.  The Near East went from being ignored to being an area of the world that must be catered to.  These nations, lacking economic infrastructure, had to rely upon the west to exploit their own resources.  There was mutual exploitation: the west needed the resources and the Arab world required the west's know-how.  This is not how it is viewed by AQ and related ilk (one of the bloggers on Townhall has referred to them as Qutbites, which is rather appropriate).  Rather, the fact that western know-how is necessary is conveniently forgotten.  And the west's reliance on Arab oil is viewed as colonial exploitation.

When Ataturk abolished the caliphate and replaced Turkish government with an aggressively secular regime, he eliminated the last vestiges of the Muslim world's greatness under the Companions and their descendents.  The illusion of a unified Dar-al-Islam was shattered.  AQ and related ilk seek the re-establishment of the caliphate and the unity that that pretends.

The Iranian Revolution provided a new example of the power of "true" Islam to conquer.  (The Soviet defeat in Afghanistan was yet another example).  The Revolution provided and provides a template for the triumph of Islam (ignore the details of the Soviet-backed communists in revolutionary Iran).  It is a continuing demonstration that "true" Muslim can overcome the autocratic western-sponsored dictators of their countries.  Then, once those tyrants are cast down, Dar-al-Islam can again be united.

The establishment of Israel is an affront to the idea of the strength of the Arab and Muslim world.  It is also taken as an example of colonialism.  It is the continuation of the Crusades (ignoring the fact that the Crusades were a reaction to Muslim invasions of historically Christian lands).  HAMAS, PIJ, the PLO, ad naseaum are all dedicated to reversing al-Naqba.

None of this is to excuse Qutbite terrorism, but merely to lend a partial explanation of their excuses for their murder and mayhem. 

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Thought Experiment

Charles Krauthammer has an excellent little thought experiment in an article at NRO from 30 March:

Thought experiment: Bring in a completely neutral observer — a Martian — and point out to him that the United States is involved in two hot wars against radical Islamic insurgents. One is in Afghanistan, a geographically marginal backwater with no resources, no industrial and no technological infrastructure. The other is in Iraq, one of the three principal Arab states, with untold oil wealth, an educated population, an advanced military and technological infrastructure which, though suffering decay in the later Saddam years, could easily be revived if it falls into the right (i.e. wrong) hands. Add to that the fact that its strategic location would give its rulers inordinate influence over the entire Persian Gulf region, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait ,and the Gulf states. Then ask your Martian: Which is the more important battle? He would not even understand why you are asking the question.

Just something to put Dem. protestations in perspective.

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Falling satellite

Not only is Russia's increased energy assertiveness (and nationalization) a threat to peace. 

Now we've got to worry about their
incompetence

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Ratchet and ratchet

How far can pressure reasonably be ratcheted up?

I thought Iran's ignoring of the 22 Aug 2006 deadline was supposed to result in increased pressure.  At what opint does the ratchet break?

Isn't there a point at which rhetoric must be matched by action for the rhetoric to have any validity?  (Purely hypothetical question).

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100 year rule

Ol' Bob won't give up Zimbabwe without a fight.

Is 1750% inflation bad?

"Mr Mugabe, who recently announced his intention to rule until he is 100 years old, is demanding his party's endorsement as its sole presidential candidate in polls due next year. But the signs are that, for the first time since Mr Mugabe took power, some of his own hard men are ready to defy him."

...
This is a string of random thoughts and quotes, to this point, but the fact remains: Mugabe has successfully destroyed Zimbabwe.

Mugabe likely would not have survived as long as he did if he weren't propped up by South Africa, which is allegedly now intent on showing Mugabe the door.

We'll see.

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Prince Saud saves the world

I think the Saudis are demonstrating poor aim.  Rather than aiming at the entity that desires war and conflict--HAMAS and Fatah--the Saudi foreign minister places the blame on Israel:

""It has never been proven that reaching out to Israel achieves anything," [Prince Saud] said. "Other Arab countries have recognised Israel and what has that achieved?

"The largest Arab country, Egypt, recognised Israel and what was the result? Not one iota of change happened in the attitude of Israel towards peace.""

Israel, of course is the country that forcibly
evicts its own citizens from the West Bank and Gaza (the homes left behind are destroyed by the Palestinian Authority--they wouldn't want their people to have the opportunity to live in homes, rather than urban hovels). 

Israel, also the country which, in the 1980s, built large apartment buildings for those living in refugee camps to move into (but such a move would have removed a bit of the desperation of the "refugees" which is bad for soliciting donations for the international community, so Arafat and his ilk had the apartments destroyed).

Israel, the nation which unilaterally withdrew from Gaza, despite the failure of Palestinians to abide by the terms of the agreement which was to lead to Israeli withdrawal.

Israel the nation which blindly and optimistically enters into "peace talks" with whoever would be so kind as to merely acknowledge their right to exist.

Prince Saud is mouthing empty threats.  Let us say that Arab countries invade Israel again.  What happened the last few times?

Israel did make a major mistake by demonstrating such weakness last summer, but they would never demonstrate that weakness if the fight was on Israeli soil.  The Israeli people would not permit it.

In 1967 and 1973 the U.S. was providing arms.  If Arab countries attempted another invasion, the U.S. would more than likely provide troops (the U.S. being controlled by the Zionists dontchaknow).

But seriously, the U.S. would be willing to provide any military aid necessary to ensure the survival of the only functioning democracy in the Arab world.  Frankly, the Turks would likely weigh in for Israel.

This is merely another failed "peace plan".  It hasn't failed yet, but it will.  HAMAS and Fatah will never abide by any agreement that leaves Israel as a nation.  (HAMAS Charter and Fatah Charter).

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Zimbabwe

Another sign for hope in Zimbabwe (see Ding dong the witch is gone? for previous)?

An acitivist vows to return to Zimbabwe, after having been evacuated following an assault on her by 17 people 11 March 2007:

"[Sekai] Holland said that "everybody is needed there now". "We are going back. It is our country. We have to get it right, we can't be defeated by a senile old man," she said, referring to President Robert Mugabe." 

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Spain demands Iran release Brits

I'm sure Iran is terrified now.

Spain
demands that Iran release the British sailors and marines.

For an
EUReferendum view on the debacle, see here

Sample:
"This [why didn't the Brits defend themselves] was raised in
Defence Questions today by Ann Winterton MP. She put to the defence minister that "the current rules of engagement that allow no conflict in Iraqi waters with Iranian forces" and thus suggested that "this led directly to 15 of our service personnel being abducted by the Iranians"."

This is an abandonment of their service members.

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Musical Instruments

If you're in the market for musical instruments, you could do worse than to visit this site.  Check out the shipping and handling link.  

A sample: 
"...
So if you are a Democrat in the USA, you are in the wrong country, Canada is your dream state.  I digress, but I can't help it... I know, I know, this should be about shipping information."

H/t Jay Nordlinger's Monday Impromptus.
 

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America: How Free?

That is the title of an upcoming Freedom House report (according to the National Review 2 April 2007 edition, Freedom House, Rocked sub. req'd).

If they've any sense of proportion they'll sit back and say, "Hey, we're publishing a paper, in America, asking how free America is.  I'd say we're pretty free.  Unless, of course, any of us honestly expects storm troopers to drag us off to somewhere barren, cold, and deserted of man and beast.  ANWR, for example.

"Anybody believe that?

"No?

"Didn't think so.  I guess America is pretty free."

That, anyway, is how the conversation ought to go.

Any takers on the outome of the upcoming report?

To jog your memory, I'll provide some alleged depredations of the U.S.: USAPATRIOT Act, Gitmo, the MSP imams, et cetera.

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The lamb will lie down with the lion

Although in this case, it's more of a cobra lying down with the mongoose (assuming the mongoose is rabid).  HAMAS and Fatah enter into a power sharing agreement...No wait, it's two other "former" terrorist organizations: the DUP and Sinn Fein (I realize that Sinn Fein was the "legitimate" arm of the IRA, providing political cover for the Provisional IRA).

Two stories on the bit:
The Age
Basque News and Information Channel (EiBT)

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Ding dong the witch is gone?

A party (ZANU-PF) agreement may force out the tyrant Bob Mugabe.
 
Western governments are working to raise up opposition to Mugabe from within his own ZANU-PF, which, considering Zimbabwe is a one-party dictatorship, is likely the only place valid opposition can be raised (somebody needs to do this with Kim and Hu Jintao).

Mugabe has already failed in his attempt to delay the next election to 2010 (anti-Chavezites, take note) and faces significant difficulties in being named the ZANU-PF candidate for the "elections" next year.

The entire story is well worth reading, but I'll leave you with one last bit:

"Mr Mugabe has also accused Mr Tsvangirai of being an agent of the British. "Tsvangirai, you want to rule this country on behalf of (British Prime Minister Tony) Blair," he told supporters. "As long as I am alive that will never happen.""

Beware the scourge of colonialism. 

Ol' Bob's going to have to come up with a better excuse for the disaster that his country has become than colonialism.

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Sri Lankan Air Force

The LTTE (Tamil Tigers) have taken to launching airborne attacks on Sri Lankan air force bases.  Well, on one particular base, at any rate. 

"A Tamil Tiger light aircraft bombed a Sri Lankan air force base next to Colombo international airport before dawn on Monday, killing three airmen and wounding 16 in the first such air strike by the rebel group."

Much more deadly effective than the old PFLP hang glider attacks on northern Israel.

The Tamils have four light aircraft.  A pro-Tamil
website shows a picture of the LTTE leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran, standing with pilots and a two-seater with four bombs attached.

The Age
story on this topic notes a Sri Lankan think tanker stating the the Tamils had bombed their way to the negotiating table before (gee, that never works: just ask Ahmadinejad, Kim, and Arafat, etc cetera).  The Tamils have a justice system, an army, a navy, a police force, and now an air force.  Nobody's bothered to reward them for their acts of murder with a country, and yet they are far more advanced than Palestine.

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What it is

The criminal law is a reflection of society's understanding of morality, or its sense of right and wrong, if you will.   That is why most jurisdictions in the U.S. ban prostitution and Iran has temporary "marriages" and Germany has unemployment benefits for prostitutes who are unable to be on their...er, feet.  The U.S. also has statutory rape laws, while in other countries marriages are contracted as young as 14 (just talk to Woody Allen).

What's the point of this?

Opposition to laws limiting abortion because they are "legislating morality" does not understand the entire purpose of the criminal law.

The criminal law exists to protect society, both from physical and moral harm.  Malum prohibitum crimes, such as jaywalking, reflect society's desire for order and by guaranteeing a degree of order, protects society physically. also.

It is the function of the people, through their elected representatives, to alter the criminal law to reflect society's understanding of right and wrong, not the function of judges to impose "enlightened" mores on society.

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