Posted by
mgraves on Wednesday, December 06, 2006 10:33:09 PM
Nature abhors a vacuum.
Terrorists love a vacuum.
And I'm not talking about a Kirby.
What the first thing that will happen with the retreat of coalition forces?
Mob and militia rule. Al Sadr's Mahdi militia, Sunni rejectionists, and Ba'athist holdouts will vie for control. We've seen this happen in Afghanistan in the 1990s (incidentally NATO forces seem intent on allowing it to happen again) and we see it in Somalia today.
The alleged humanitarian crisis that was to accompany the invasion will be realized, in spades, with our departure. Assyrian Christians, Turkmen, and other minority groups already face death and ethnic cleansing at the hand of mobs and militias. The coalition is the last line of defense (even if, currently, political pressures get in the way of acting as any line of defense, in many cases) for these groups.
Iraqi military and police do not possess, yet, the professionalism that is necessary to stop them from engaging in illegitimate violence. We see it today, with coalition troops still in Iraq, as police units and military units behave as death squads, looking out for sectarian interests, when not babysat by coalition forces. The mere presence of U.S. forces deters much atrocity, as INA seek the approval of the greatest military in the history of the world. Whose approval would they seek in the absence of American forces?
Until a coherent Iraqi identity is formed, our departure will lead to anarchy, a vacuum of power. The purpose of terrorism is to seek power and control: power to define a religion or a people; or the ability to control resources, cultural or natural. A power vacuum permits them to move in and begin exercising power, to begin realizing their "ideal" state.
The power vacuum that followed the Reign of Terror led to Napoleon and total war across the continent. Terrorists, ba'athists, and Sunni rejectionists will vie against the Syrian-Iranian coalition to dominate Iraq. Saudi Wahhabism will enter the fray (more so than presently) against all comers.
It is likely a stretch to claim that total war would rage in the Near East, with the departure of coalition forces. It is not a stretch, however, to claim that hundreds of thousands would die or go into exile; Iraq would become a seething cauldron of factionalism, extremism, and terrorism; and the image of America as a useful and dependable ally would die (to the extent that it hasn't, already).
We've already allowed Somalia to become such a place where terrorists breed and decency dies. Pakistan has ceded Waziristan to such a fate. Parts of Afghanistan remain outside the control of ANA troops, and in the hands of a resurgent Taliban, militias, and warlords.
The world is dangerous enough without the U.S. contributing another petrie dish of terrorism, anarchy, and murder to the world. We face a resurgent Russia, a nuclear North Korea, and a nuclear Iran. That's bad enough, but with North Korea a known proliferator and terrorist state, and Iran a terrorist state, nuclear weapons will spread throughout the Near East, ostensibly in self-defense, but also to stoke the egos of autocrats. Latin America is regressing economically as yet more nations have embraced leaders wedded to the failed statist policies of the past: Chavez, Morales, Ortega, and Castro.